Dagur framtíðarrýnis þjóða innan OECD – 25 apríl næstkomandi
Um 58 erindi verða flutt, um ólíkar framtíðaráskoranir, á ólíkum sviðum. Markmið ráðstefnunnar er að auka getu þjóða til að takast á við ólíka drifkrafta samfélaga. Skapa sameiginlegan skilning á viðfangsefnum. Auka skilvirkni við stefnumótun, nýsköpun og efla tengslamyndun. Hér að neðan er drög að bráðabirgðadagskrá, nokkuð ruglingslega sett uðð en þau ykkar sem hafa áhuga geta skráð sig á vefslóð hér að neðan. Með því fáið þið uppfærða dagskrá þegar nær dregur.
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Virtual OECD Government Foresight Community Day
PRELIMINARY AGENDA
1. Opening session
9.00 – 9.15 CET | PLENARY
Introduction and opening remarks
• Rafał Kierzenkowski, Senior Counsellor for Strategic Foresight, Head of the Strategic Foresight
Unit, OECD
2. Community Exchange
Presentations of findings from recent foresight work, thematic mini-workshops, or opportunities to
share and seek feedback on current plans and priorities for the future.
Introduction to the session. Rafał Kierzenkowski, Senior Counsellor for Strategic Foresight, Head of
the Strategic Foresight Unit, OECD
2.1 Session 1, wave 1
9.15 – 10.00 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS
• Co-Creating value-driven visions of preferred futures: The NISTEP 12th Science and
Technology Foresight Survey. Asako Okamura, Japan’s National Institute of Science and
Technology Policy (NISTEP)
• Exploring the social implications of generative AI through scenarios. Hao Guang Tse, Prime’s
Minister Office, Singapore
• Using aspirational foresight to determine development priorities in Laos. Jan Rielaender,
Country Diagnostics Unit, OECD Development Centre, OECD
• Scenarios of Poland’s development in the national development concept 2050. Karol
Wasilewski and Kacper Nosarzewski, The Futures Literacy Company - 4CF
• Using narrative foresight to depict today's economy from a future standpoint: What if
alternate stories were told? Eeva Hellström, Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra
• Africa’s energy transition to 2050. Jakkie Cilliers, head of African Futures & Innovation,
Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria, South Africa
• Scottish Government Foresight Programme: Analysing Scotland’s key trends, opportunities
and risks 2024-2044. Kirsty McWhinnie, Scottish Government
• Encourager la culture de l’anticipation et de la prospective dans le monde islamique. Kais
Hammami, Islamic World Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization - ICESCO (French
speaking breakout group)
• APEC STI strategic foresight. Surachai Sathitkunarat, APEC Center for Technology Foresight
Virtual OECD Government Foresight Community Day
2.2 Session 1, wave 2
10.00 – 10.45 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS
• Exploring the World Organisation for Animal Health’s future(s): Participatory foresight
project insights and scenarios. Tianna Brand, World Organisation for Animal Health’s (WOAH)
and Wendy Schultz, Jigsaw Foresight
• Vidas in 2050: Shaping policies for future generations. Luis Díez Catalán, Foresight and
Strategy Office of the Spanish Government
• Who will pay taxes? Taskeen Ali, His Majesty's (HM) Revenue and Customs-HMRC, UK
Government
• Global Trends to 2040: Choosing Europe’s Future. European Strategy and Policy Analysis
System-ESPAS (Presenter to be confirmed)
• Ukraine Scenarios project. Dr. Olaf Theiler, German Bundeswehr
• Use of strategic foresight as a means to better anticipate and manage emerging critical
risks. Jack Radisch, Directorate for Public Governance, OECD
• Integrating foresight into the government’s policy-making process. Tan Shu Ying, Mohd
Nurul Azammi Mohd Nudri and Azmil Mohd Amin, Malaysian Industry-Government Group for
High Technology (MIGHT)
• The global driver of change for higher education: The results of two years of study. Chris
Luebkeman, ETH Zurich
• Digital transformation for a sustainable future – anticipating and mitigating potential
rebound effects systemically. Ullrich Lorenz, Systemic Futures, Germany
10.45 – 11.00 CET | BREAK
2. Foresight Essentials & Methods
Introductory sessions outlining core definitions, methods, and tools for participants in the early stages
of strategic foresight practice in government.
Introduction to the session. Rafał Kierzenkowski, Senior Counsellor for Strategic Foresight, Head of
the Strategic Foresight Unit, OECD
2.1 Round 1
11.00 – 11. 45 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS
• Government Office for Science: New Futures Toolkit. UK Government Office for Science
(Presenter to be confirmed)
• Strategic foresight as a capability. Sensing, making sense, and using the futures for
government. Gabriele Rizzo, United States Space Force
• Systems thinking, turbulence, and paths to adaptive action. Tianna Brand, World
Organisation for Animal Health’s (WOAH) and Wendy Schultz, Jigsaw Foresight
Virtual OECD Government Foresight Community Day
• Dealing with deep uncertainty. Ed Dammers, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment
Agency
• Lessons learned in mainstreaming foresight at institutional and think tank level. Ricardo
Borges de Castro, European Policy Centre
• Framing complex domains for foresight analysis. Marius Oosthuizen, Dubai Future Academy,
Dubai Future Foundation
2.2 Round 2
11.45 – 12.30 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS
• Shapeshifting foresight. Taskeen Ali, His Majesty's (HM) Revenue and Customs-HMRC, UK
Government
• Horizon scanning for policy making – with examples from the German Federal Environment
Agency. Sylvia Veenhoff and Katrin Kowalczyk, German Environment Agency and Federal
Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection
• Measuring the impact of foresight. Catherine Day, UK Cabinet Office
• Why do participatory futures matter? An introduction to participatory practices and their
potential in government foresight. Jéssica Leite dos Santos, Brazilian Naval War College
• Structured forecasting using Delphi – harnessing collective wisdom. Hannah Littler, UK
Environment Agency
• Building scenarios by using the method of Future States. Zsolt Pataki, European Parliament
12.30 – 13.30 CET | BREAK
3. Horizon Scanning Session: What keeps you awake at night?
Horizon scanning session dedicated to emerging signals, disruptions, and concerns being identified by
the foresight community that should be closely followed by policymakers.
13.30 – 14.00 CET | PLENARY
• Introduction to the session. Rafał Kierzenkowski, Senior Counsellor for Strategic Foresight,
Head of the Strategic Foresight Unit, OECD
• 5-minutes pitch by each facilitator
14.00 – 14.30 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS
• Geoeconomic fragmentation
Facilitated by: Paul Woods, Central Bank of Ireland
• The danger of fractured realities
Facilitated by: Jorg Körner, German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
Virtual OECD Government Foresight Community Day
• Backlash against green political action
Facilitated by: Grzegorz Drozd, European Commission
• From severe storms to severe responses: Climate, insurance and geoengineering solutions
Facilitated by: Trish Lavery, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, Australian
Government
• The convergence of generative AI and synthetic biology
Facilitated by: Jean-Marc Rickli, Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
• Grey rhino or grey power – the convergence of ageing and reduced births?
Facilitated by: Mark Robinson, Australian Taxation Office
4. Preparing for the UN Summit of the Future
14.30 – 15.30 CET | PLENARY
The UN Summit of the Future in September 2024 is pivotal for building global momentum behind long[1]term governance and foresight in policymaking.
• Presentation from the UN Futures Lab Network followed by interactive discussion
15.30 – 16.00 CET | BREAK
5. Community Exchange
Presentations of findings from recent foresight work, thematic mini-workshops, or opportunities to
share and seek feedback on current plans and priorities for the future.
Introduction to the session. Rafał Kierzenkowski, Senior Counsellor for Strategic Foresight, Head of
the Strategic Foresight Unit, OECD
5.1 Session 2, wave 1
16.00 – 16.45 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS
• Developing capacity in public sector foresight: Exploring nine essential competencies for
effective government futuring. Zan Chandler, Policy Horizons Canada
• New GOScience foresight project on global supply chains. Jack Snape, UK Government Office
for Science
• Territorial Outlook on tour. Ed Dammers, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
• Global Trends 2045: The precipice of transformation change, or more of the same? Steve
Scharre, U.S. ODNI/NIC Strategic Futures Group
• Learn how horizon scanning can help shape EU policy and discuss recent signals of change.
Maciej Krzysztofowicz and Maija Knutti, EU Policy Lab
• Establishing and embedding strategic foresight in central banking. Paul Woods, Central Bank
of Ireland
Virtual OECD Government Foresight Community Day
• Embedding strategic foresight with a multi-level perspective. Peter de Smedt, Government
of Flanders
• Fit for future: Trade unions’ experiences with strategic foresight. Rafael Peels, Bureau for
Workers’ Activities, International Labour Organisation
5.1 Session 2, wave 1
16.45 – 17.30 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS
• Governing Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could be the most complex and difficult
problem humanity has ever faced. How can we do it? Jerome Glenn, The Millennium Project
• Spotting annual patterns in data, whole-government horizon scanning, and preparing for
elections. James Ancell, Harry Hand, Rachel Joiner and Eduarda Giffoni, UK Cabinet Office
• Space futures with the US Space Force and European Parliament. Gabriele Rizzo and Zsolt
Pataki, United States Space Force and European Parliament
• The AI Generation: Exploring the potential impacts of AI on youth. Martin Berry, Policy
Horizons Canada
• Showcasing the Welsh approach to futures through the Well-being of Future Generations
Act, with examples of practical tools and case studies. Marie Brousseau-Navarro and
Petranka Malcheva, Office of the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales
• 2023 EU Strategic Foresight Report: how & what? Kathrine Jensen and Daniel Torrecilla
Fernandez, European Commission
• Out of the box participative foresight in defence. Capt. (R) Claudio Correa, visiting researcher
Universidade Lusófona and Jéssica Leite, Visiting researcher King's College London
• Transformations in the future of public employment: From white collar to digital collar.
Gustavo Edgardo Blutman, Public Administration Research Center - School of Economics -
Buenos Aires University
• Fostering a desired future for the Ecuador-Peru border integration zone: The role of
academia in shaping tomorrow’s landscape. Kevin Jimenez, Universidad Nacional de Loja