Framtíðarfræði

Framtíðarfræði

Faghópurinn er fyrir alla þá sem hafa áhuga á framtíðarfræðum, nýtingu þeirra og möguleikum.

Tilgangur faghópsins er að auka víðsýni og styðja við nýsköpun og samkeppnishæfni atvinnulífs með notkun framtíðafræða. Markmiðið er að efla þekkingu á notkun framtíðarfræða sem hagnýtu tæki fyrir fyrirtæki og stofnanir til að takast á við framtíðaráskoranir, jafnt tækifæri sem ógnanir. Framtíðarfræði samanstanda af aðferðum sem hægt er að beita til að greina á kerfisbundinn hátt mögulegar birtingarmyndir framtíðar og vera þannig betur í stakk búin til að mæta óvæntum áskorunum.

Viðburðir á næstunni

Dagur framtíðarrýnis þjóða innan OECD – 25 apríl næstkomandi

Um 58 erindi verða flutt, um ólíkar framtíðaráskoranir, á ólíkum sviðum. Markmið ráðstefnunnar er að auka getu þjóða til að takast á við ólíka drifkrafta samfélaga. Skapa sameiginlegan skilning á viðfangsefnum. Auka skilvirkni við stefnumótun, nýsköpun og efla tengslamyndun. Hér að neðan er drög að bráðabirgðadagskrá, nokkuð ruglingslega sett uðð en þau ykkar sem hafa áhuga geta skráð sig á vefslóð hér að neðan. Með því fáið þið uppfærða dagskrá þegar nær dregur.

Þátttakan er gjaldfrjáls. Skráið ykkur hér Meeting Registration - Zoom

Virtual OECD Government Foresight Community Day

PRELIMINARY AGENDA

1. Opening session

9.00 – 9.15 CET | PLENARY

Introduction and opening remarks

• Rafał Kierzenkowski, Senior Counsellor for Strategic Foresight, Head of the Strategic Foresight

Unit, OECD

2. Community Exchange

Presentations of findings from recent foresight work, thematic mini-workshops, or opportunities to

share and seek feedback on current plans and priorities for the future.

Introduction to the session. Rafał Kierzenkowski, Senior Counsellor for Strategic Foresight, Head of

the Strategic Foresight Unit, OECD

2.1 Session 1, wave 1

9.15 – 10.00 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS

• Co-Creating value-driven visions of preferred futures: The NISTEP 12th Science and

Technology Foresight Survey. Asako Okamura, Japan’s National Institute of Science and

Technology Policy (NISTEP)

• Exploring the social implications of generative AI through scenarios. Hao Guang Tse, Prime’s

Minister Office, Singapore

• Using aspirational foresight to determine development priorities in Laos. Jan Rielaender,

Country Diagnostics Unit, OECD Development Centre, OECD

• Scenarios of Poland’s development in the national development concept 2050. Karol

Wasilewski and Kacper Nosarzewski, The Futures Literacy Company - 4CF

• Using narrative foresight to depict today's economy from a future standpoint: What if

alternate stories were told? Eeva Hellström, Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra

• Africa’s energy transition to 2050. Jakkie Cilliers, head of African Futures & Innovation,

Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria, South Africa

• Scottish Government Foresight Programme: Analysing Scotland’s key trends, opportunities

and risks 2024-2044. Kirsty McWhinnie, Scottish Government

• Encourager la culture de l’anticipation et de la prospective dans le monde islamique. Kais

Hammami, Islamic World Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization - ICESCO (French

speaking breakout group)

• APEC STI strategic foresight. Surachai Sathitkunarat, APEC Center for Technology Foresight

Virtual OECD Government Foresight Community Day

2.2 Session 1, wave 2

10.00 – 10.45 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS

• Exploring the World Organisation for Animal Health’s future(s): Participatory foresight

project insights and scenarios. Tianna Brand, World Organisation for Animal Health’s (WOAH)

and Wendy Schultz, Jigsaw Foresight

• Vidas in 2050: Shaping policies for future generations. Luis Díez Catalán, Foresight and

Strategy Office of the Spanish Government

• Who will pay taxes? Taskeen Ali, His Majesty's (HM) Revenue and Customs-HMRC, UK

Government

• Global Trends to 2040: Choosing Europe’s Future. European Strategy and Policy Analysis

System-ESPAS (Presenter to be confirmed)

• Ukraine Scenarios project. Dr. Olaf Theiler, German Bundeswehr

• Use of strategic foresight as a means to better anticipate and manage emerging critical

risks. Jack Radisch, Directorate for Public Governance, OECD

• Integrating foresight into the government’s policy-making process. Tan Shu Ying, Mohd

Nurul Azammi Mohd Nudri and Azmil Mohd Amin, Malaysian Industry-Government Group for

High Technology (MIGHT)

• The global driver of change for higher education: The results of two years of study. Chris

Luebkeman, ETH Zurich

• Digital transformation for a sustainable future – anticipating and mitigating potential

rebound effects systemically. Ullrich Lorenz, Systemic Futures, Germany

10.45 – 11.00 CET | BREAK

2. Foresight Essentials & Methods

Introductory sessions outlining core definitions, methods, and tools for participants in the early stages

of strategic foresight practice in government.

Introduction to the session. Rafał Kierzenkowski, Senior Counsellor for Strategic Foresight, Head of

the Strategic Foresight Unit, OECD

2.1 Round 1

11.00 – 11. 45 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS

• Government Office for Science: New Futures Toolkit. UK Government Office for Science

(Presenter to be confirmed)

• Strategic foresight as a capability. Sensing, making sense, and using the futures for

government. Gabriele Rizzo, United States Space Force

• Systems thinking, turbulence, and paths to adaptive action. Tianna Brand, World

Organisation for Animal Health’s (WOAH) and Wendy Schultz, Jigsaw Foresight

Virtual OECD Government Foresight Community Day

• Dealing with deep uncertainty. Ed Dammers, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment

Agency

• Lessons learned in mainstreaming foresight at institutional and think tank level. Ricardo

Borges de Castro, European Policy Centre

• Framing complex domains for foresight analysis. Marius Oosthuizen, Dubai Future Academy,

Dubai Future Foundation

2.2 Round 2

11.45 – 12.30 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS

• Shapeshifting foresight. Taskeen Ali, His Majesty's (HM) Revenue and Customs-HMRC, UK

Government

• Horizon scanning for policy making – with examples from the German Federal Environment

Agency. Sylvia Veenhoff and Katrin Kowalczyk, German Environment Agency and Federal

Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection

• Measuring the impact of foresight. Catherine Day, UK Cabinet Office

• Why do participatory futures matter? An introduction to participatory practices and their

potential in government foresight. Jéssica Leite dos Santos, Brazilian Naval War College

• Structured forecasting using Delphi – harnessing collective wisdom. Hannah Littler, UK

Environment Agency

• Building scenarios by using the method of Future States. Zsolt Pataki, European Parliament

12.30 – 13.30 CET | BREAK

3. Horizon Scanning Session: What keeps you awake at night?

Horizon scanning session dedicated to emerging signals, disruptions, and concerns being identified by

the foresight community that should be closely followed by policymakers.

13.30 – 14.00 CET | PLENARY

• Introduction to the session. Rafał Kierzenkowski, Senior Counsellor for Strategic Foresight,

Head of the Strategic Foresight Unit, OECD

• 5-minutes pitch by each facilitator

14.00 – 14.30 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS

• Geoeconomic fragmentation

Facilitated by: Paul Woods, Central Bank of Ireland

• The danger of fractured realities

Facilitated by: Jorg Körner, German Federal Ministry of Education and Research

Virtual OECD Government Foresight Community Day

• Backlash against green political action

Facilitated by: Grzegorz Drozd, European Commission

• From severe storms to severe responses: Climate, insurance and geoengineering solutions

Facilitated by: Trish Lavery, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, Australian

Government

• The convergence of generative AI and synthetic biology

Facilitated by: Jean-Marc Rickli, Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)

• Grey rhino or grey power – the convergence of ageing and reduced births?

Facilitated by: Mark Robinson, Australian Taxation Office

4. Preparing for the UN Summit of the Future

14.30 – 15.30 CET | PLENARY

The UN Summit of the Future in September 2024 is pivotal for building global momentum behind long[1]term governance and foresight in policymaking.

• Presentation from the UN Futures Lab Network followed by interactive discussion

15.30 – 16.00 CET | BREAK

5. Community Exchange

Presentations of findings from recent foresight work, thematic mini-workshops, or opportunities to

share and seek feedback on current plans and priorities for the future.

Introduction to the session. Rafał Kierzenkowski, Senior Counsellor for Strategic Foresight, Head of

the Strategic Foresight Unit, OECD

5.1 Session 2, wave 1

16.00 – 16.45 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS

• Developing capacity in public sector foresight: Exploring nine essential competencies for

effective government futuring. Zan Chandler, Policy Horizons Canada

• New GOScience foresight project on global supply chains. Jack Snape, UK Government Office

for Science

• Territorial Outlook on tour. Ed Dammers, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

• Global Trends 2045: The precipice of transformation change, or more of the same? Steve

Scharre, U.S. ODNI/NIC Strategic Futures Group

• Learn how horizon scanning can help shape EU policy and discuss recent signals of change.

Maciej Krzysztofowicz and Maija Knutti, EU Policy Lab

• Establishing and embedding strategic foresight in central banking. Paul Woods, Central Bank

of Ireland

Virtual OECD Government Foresight Community Day

• Embedding strategic foresight with a multi-level perspective. Peter de Smedt, Government

of Flanders

• Fit for future: Trade unions’ experiences with strategic foresight. Rafael Peels, Bureau for

Workers’ Activities, International Labour Organisation

5.1 Session 2, wave 1

16.45 – 17.30 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS

• Governing Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could be the most complex and difficult

problem humanity has ever faced. How can we do it? Jerome Glenn, The Millennium Project

• Spotting annual patterns in data, whole-government horizon scanning, and preparing for

elections. James Ancell, Harry Hand, Rachel Joiner and Eduarda Giffoni, UK Cabinet Office

• Space futures with the US Space Force and European Parliament. Gabriele Rizzo and Zsolt

Pataki, United States Space Force and European Parliament

• The AI Generation: Exploring the potential impacts of AI on youth. Martin Berry, Policy

Horizons Canada

• Showcasing the Welsh approach to futures through the Well-being of Future Generations

Act, with examples of practical tools and case studies. Marie Brousseau-Navarro and

Petranka Malcheva, Office of the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales

• 2023 EU Strategic Foresight Report: how & what? Kathrine Jensen and Daniel Torrecilla

Fernandez, European Commission

• Out of the box participative foresight in defence. Capt. (R) Claudio Correa, visiting researcher

Universidade Lusófona and Jéssica Leite, Visiting researcher King's College London

• Transformations in the future of public employment: From white collar to digital collar.

Gustavo Edgardo Blutman, Public Administration Research Center - School of Economics -

Buenos Aires University

• Fostering a desired future for the Ecuador-Peru border integration zone: The role of

academia in shaping tomorrow’s landscape. Kevin Jimenez, Universidad Nacional de Loja

Framtíðarvika í Kanada á netinu - Fjöldi viðburða 7 til 9 maí

Framtíðarvika Kanada (Future week) verður dagana 7 og 9 maí næstkomandi. Um er að ræða árlegan viðburð, þar sem hver og einn getur tekið þátt í ólíkum viðburðum þar sem rýnt verður í tækifæri og áskoranir, sem geta umbreytt viðhorfum og stöðu okkar.  Eins og fyrr segir er Framtíðarvikan er opin hverjum sem er sem, hvort heldur fólki úr opinbera geiranaum eða úr einkageiranum. Um er að ræða samtal um hvað sé við handan morgundagsins. Skoðið þessa vefslóð og skráið ykkur á þá viðburði sem þið hafið áhuga á.

Futures Week 2024 (canada.ca)

Karl Friðriksson, faghópur framtíðarfræða og gervigreindar.

Fréttir

THE GLOBAL 50 – Meginkraftar framtíða.

THE GLOBAL 50 – Meginkraftar framtíða.

Dubai Future Foundation, sem er samstarfsaðili Framtíðarseturs Íslands, var að gefa út áhugaverða skýrslu, The Global 50, um 50 meginkrafta til framtíðarvaxtar, velmegunar og velferðar. Sumir þessara krafta eru hægt rísandi, en aðrir í nærri en allir þarfnast íhugunar, þó svo langt sé í að þeir skelli á okkur.

Skoðið þessa vefslóð, þar er síðan hægt að ná í skýrsluna sem pdf.

The Global 50 Report | Dubai Future Foundation

 

Njótið dags og framtíðar.

Framtíðir í febrúar – Fjölbreyttir viðburðir

Framtíðir í febrúar – Fjölbreyttir viðburðir

Framtíðarhugleiðingar koma sterkt inn í febrúarmánuð. Við byrjum með öflugri þátttöku í UTmessunni í Hörpu dagana 2 til 3 febrúar.

2 febrúar, Eldborg kl. Harpa

Einn af aðalfyrirlesurum á UTmessunni er José Cordeiro sem mörg okkar kannast við. Hann nefnir sitt innlegg: The Future of the Future: Transhumanism, Immortality and the Technological Singularity. Ekki missa af þessum viðburði. José, verður síðan á ráðstefnunni að árrita á nýlega bók sína Death of the Death.

UTmessan - Forsíða

3. febrúar, Harpa.

Kringum hádegið mun verða pallborðsumræða milli þeirra Kára Stefánssonar, hjá Íslenskri erfðagreiningu og José Cordeiro um ódauðleika mannsins og aðrar tækniframfarir. Fylgist með ráðstefnuvefnum um tímasetningu og í hvaða sal viðburðurinn verður. Aðgangur ókeypis.

3. febrúar, Kaldalón - KL. 14:30 - 15:30. Ný hugsun fyrir nýjar kynslóðir.

Kostljósinu beint að valdeflingu ungmenna, nýnæmi í viðhorfum og stjórnun. Aðgangur ókeypis. Eftirfarandi örerindi verða flutt:

Áhugaverð verkefni til valdeflingar ungu fólki

Eyjólfur Brynjar Eyjólfsson, forstöðumaður á Menntasviði HÍ

Tæknitröll og íseldfjöll

Dr. Bryony Mathew, sendiherra Bretlands á Íslandi

Að hugleiða um framtíðir

Karl Friðriksson, Framtíðarsetur Íslands

F-in 8 fyrir framtíðarleiðtoga. Frá baráttu til gleði og árangurs

Rúna Magnúsdóttir

Hugmyndasmiðir - framtíðin kallar á öfluga frumkvöðla

Svava Björk Ólafsdóttir, Hugmyndasmiður og sérfræðingur í nýsköpun

                      Fundarstjóri: Karl Friðriksson, Framtíðarsetur Íslands

21 til 23 febrúar verður alþjóðleg ráðstefna um framtíðarþróun lýðræðis, Futures Democracies, á vegum Framtíðarseturs Íslands og Alþjóðasambands framtíðarfræðinga (WFSF), sjá nánar á vefnum https://framtidarsetur.is/futures-of-democracy-reykjavik-2024/

23 febrúar verður sérstök vinnustofa, með bandarískum sérfræðingum, undir heitinu Framtíð kynlíf og nándar árið 2052 eða The Future of Sex & Intimacy 2052. Viðburðurinn er haldinn í samvinnu við Ljósmæðrafélag Íslands. Sjá einnig nánar á ráðastefnuvefnum hér að ofan undir Side event. Þátttaka í vinnustofunni er öllum opin og aðgangur ókeypis.

Fleiri viðburðir verða í febrúar og kynntir síðar. Umsjónarmaður faghóps framtíðarfræða og gervigreindar.

Viðburðir síðasta árs og það sem framundan er í febrúar - Framtíðir í febrúar

Gleðilegt ár - Allt stefnir í að febrúar verði mánuður Framtíða, og því gefum við honum þema nafnið Framtíðir í febrúar.  Í byrjun mánaðar, eða 2 febrúar er UTmessan í Hörpu https://utmessan.is/radstefnudagskra/fyrirlesarar.html Einn af aðalfyrirlesrum þar er José Cordeiro, frá Millennium Project. Fyrirlestur hans nefnist: The Future of the Future: Transhumanism, immortality and the Technological Singularity. Síðan verða viðburðir 3 febrúar í Hörpu sem verða kynntir síðar. 

Dagana 21 til 23 febrúar verður alþjóðleg ráðstefna á sviði framtíðarfræða um áskoranir sem beinast að þróun lýðræðis í heiminum. https://framtidarsetur.is/futures-of-democracy-reykjavik-2024/

Endilega takið dagana frá og skráið ykkur á áhugaverða ráðstefnu. Nánar síðar.

Síðan er hér samantekt á nokkrum áhugverðum alþjóðaviðburðum frá seinasta ári :) Framtíðin er björt.

2023 Year in Review

 ChatGPT wakes up the world to future AI impacts on education, work, culture.

  1. Turkey/Syria Earthquake kills 50,000, triggers building codes new enforcement
  2. Russian invasion of Ukraine continues
  3. Europe survived winter with new energy sources
  4. Deepfakes, disinformation proliferates, no rules for information warfare.
  5. UN Treaty to protect 30% of the oceans’ biodiversity by 2030 open for signature
  6. Every neural connection mapped in a larval fruit fly.
  7. International Criminal Court (ICC) issues arrest warrant for Vladmir Putin.
  8. Former President Trump is indited 4 times with total of 91 charges.

10. First X-ray image of a single atom.

11. First space solar power transmission from orbit to earth by Caltech.

12. Pure chicken meat from genetic material without chickens USDA approved

13. UN Security Council explores the security implications of artificial intelligence

14. China creates first national laws to regulate generative AI

15. July-October were the hottest months in recorded history

16. Massive demonstrations in Israel over reducing the supreme court’s power

17. Hamas invades Israel, global condemnation of Israel for devastating response.

18. China passes the US in number of scientific articles in the Nature Index.

19. India passes China as the most populous nation

20. Building blocks of life (methenium, CH3+ (and/or carbon cation, C+) detected in interstellar space.

21. FDA approval for testing brain chips implants in humans by Neuralink

22. World Summit II on Parliamentary Committees for the Future held in Uruguay.

23. India lands on near moon’s south poll, while Russia crashed a few days before.

24. Human brain activity translated into continuous stream of text.

25. Organized crime received $2.2 trillion from cybercrimes, while it cost business and individuals $8 trillion in 2023.

26. European Court of Human Rights to hear global warming case against 33 governments (first serious example of intergenerational law).

27. US and China, plus 27 other countries sign Bletchley Declaration on international cooperation to develop safe AI

28. Alzheimer’s disease onset decreased by 35% by Donanemab drug.

29. Mico- and nanoplastics pass the blood-brain barrier in mice.

30. Electronics grown inside living tissue furthers new field of bioelectronics.

31. The global average temperature temporarily exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial average November 17th for the first time in recorded history.

32. COP28 in Dubai and COP29 in Baku announced, both oil-dependent economies

33. Google claims Gemini has advanced reasoning beyond GPT-4

34. Presidents Xi and Biden agree to joint US-China AI safety working group

 

 

Stjórn

Karl Friðriksson
Framkvæmdastjóri -  Formaður - Framtíðarsetur Íslands
Anna Sigurborg Ólafsdóttir
Framtíðarfræðingur -  Stjórnandi - Skrifstofa Alþingis
Ásta Kristín Sigurjónsdóttir
Framkvæmdastjóri -  Stjórnandi - Íslenski ferðaklasinn
Guðjón Þór Erlendsson
Sérfræðingur -  Stjórnandi - Skipulagsstofnun
Gunnar Haugen
Annað -  Stjórnandi - CCP hf.
Hólmfríður Sigurðardóttir
Annað -  Stjórnandi - Orkuveita Reykjavíkur
Ollý Björk Sigríðardóttir
Þjónustustjóri -  Stjórnandi - 1912 ehf
Sigurður Br. Pálsson
Forstjóri -  Stjórnandi - BYKO
Sævar Kristinsson
Sérfræðingur -  Stjórnandi - KPMG ehf
Védís Sigurðardóttir
Verkefnastjóri -  Stjórnandi - Landsbankinn
Þór Garðar Þórarinsson
Stjórnandi - Atvinnuvega- og nýsköpunarráðuneyti
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