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Virtual OECD Government Foresight Community Day

PRELIMINARY AGENDA

1. Opening session

9.00 – 9.15 CET | PLENARY

Introduction and opening remarks

• Rafał Kierzenkowski, Senior Counsellor for Strategic Foresight, Head of the Strategic Foresight

Unit, OECD

2. Community Exchange

Presentations of findings from recent foresight work, thematic mini-workshops, or opportunities to

share and seek feedback on current plans and priorities for the future.

Introduction to the session. Rafał Kierzenkowski, Senior Counsellor for Strategic Foresight, Head of

the Strategic Foresight Unit, OECD

2.1 Session 1, wave 1

9.15 – 10.00 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS

• Co-Creating value-driven visions of preferred futures: The NISTEP 12th Science and

Technology Foresight Survey. Asako Okamura, Japan’s National Institute of Science and

Technology Policy (NISTEP)

• Exploring the social implications of generative AI through scenarios. Hao Guang Tse, Prime’s

Minister Office, Singapore

• Using aspirational foresight to determine development priorities in Laos. Jan Rielaender,

Country Diagnostics Unit, OECD Development Centre, OECD

• Scenarios of Poland’s development in the national development concept 2050. Karol

Wasilewski and Kacper Nosarzewski, The Futures Literacy Company - 4CF

• Using narrative foresight to depict today's economy from a future standpoint: What if

alternate stories were told? Eeva Hellström, Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra

• Africa’s energy transition to 2050. Jakkie Cilliers, head of African Futures & Innovation,

Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria, South Africa

• Scottish Government Foresight Programme: Analysing Scotland’s key trends, opportunities

and risks 2024-2044. Kirsty McWhinnie, Scottish Government

• Encourager la culture de l’anticipation et de la prospective dans le monde islamique. Kais

Hammami, Islamic World Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization - ICESCO (French

speaking breakout group)

• APEC STI strategic foresight. Surachai Sathitkunarat, APEC Center for Technology Foresight

Virtual OECD Government Foresight Community Day

2.2 Session 1, wave 2

10.00 – 10.45 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS

• Exploring the World Organisation for Animal Health’s future(s): Participatory foresight

project insights and scenarios. Tianna Brand, World Organisation for Animal Health’s (WOAH)

and Wendy Schultz, Jigsaw Foresight

• Vidas in 2050: Shaping policies for future generations. Luis Díez Catalán, Foresight and

Strategy Office of the Spanish Government

• Who will pay taxes? Taskeen Ali, His Majesty's (HM) Revenue and Customs-HMRC, UK

Government

• Global Trends to 2040: Choosing Europe’s Future. European Strategy and Policy Analysis

System-ESPAS (Presenter to be confirmed)

• Ukraine Scenarios project. Dr. Olaf Theiler, German Bundeswehr

• Use of strategic foresight as a means to better anticipate and manage emerging critical

risks. Jack Radisch, Directorate for Public Governance, OECD

• Integrating foresight into the government’s policy-making process. Tan Shu Ying, Mohd

Nurul Azammi Mohd Nudri and Azmil Mohd Amin, Malaysian Industry-Government Group for

High Technology (MIGHT)

• The global driver of change for higher education: The results of two years of study. Chris

Luebkeman, ETH Zurich

• Digital transformation for a sustainable future – anticipating and mitigating potential

rebound effects systemically. Ullrich Lorenz, Systemic Futures, Germany

10.45 – 11.00 CET | BREAK

2. Foresight Essentials & Methods

Introductory sessions outlining core definitions, methods, and tools for participants in the early stages

of strategic foresight practice in government.

Introduction to the session. Rafał Kierzenkowski, Senior Counsellor for Strategic Foresight, Head of

the Strategic Foresight Unit, OECD

2.1 Round 1

11.00 – 11. 45 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS

• Government Office for Science: New Futures Toolkit. UK Government Office for Science

(Presenter to be confirmed)

• Strategic foresight as a capability. Sensing, making sense, and using the futures for

government. Gabriele Rizzo, United States Space Force

• Systems thinking, turbulence, and paths to adaptive action. Tianna Brand, World

Organisation for Animal Health’s (WOAH) and Wendy Schultz, Jigsaw Foresight

Virtual OECD Government Foresight Community Day

• Dealing with deep uncertainty. Ed Dammers, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment

Agency

• Lessons learned in mainstreaming foresight at institutional and think tank level. Ricardo

Borges de Castro, European Policy Centre

• Framing complex domains for foresight analysis. Marius Oosthuizen, Dubai Future Academy,

Dubai Future Foundation

2.2 Round 2

11.45 – 12.30 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS

• Shapeshifting foresight. Taskeen Ali, His Majesty's (HM) Revenue and Customs-HMRC, UK

Government

• Horizon scanning for policy making – with examples from the German Federal Environment

Agency. Sylvia Veenhoff and Katrin Kowalczyk, German Environment Agency and Federal

Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection

• Measuring the impact of foresight. Catherine Day, UK Cabinet Office

• Why do participatory futures matter? An introduction to participatory practices and their

potential in government foresight. Jéssica Leite dos Santos, Brazilian Naval War College

• Structured forecasting using Delphi – harnessing collective wisdom. Hannah Littler, UK

Environment Agency

• Building scenarios by using the method of Future States. Zsolt Pataki, European Parliament

12.30 – 13.30 CET | BREAK

3. Horizon Scanning Session: What keeps you awake at night?

Horizon scanning session dedicated to emerging signals, disruptions, and concerns being identified by

the foresight community that should be closely followed by policymakers.

13.30 – 14.00 CET | PLENARY

• Introduction to the session. Rafał Kierzenkowski, Senior Counsellor for Strategic Foresight,

Head of the Strategic Foresight Unit, OECD

• 5-minutes pitch by each facilitator

14.00 – 14.30 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS

• Geoeconomic fragmentation

Facilitated by: Paul Woods, Central Bank of Ireland

• The danger of fractured realities

Facilitated by: Jorg Körner, German Federal Ministry of Education and Research

Virtual OECD Government Foresight Community Day

• Backlash against green political action

Facilitated by: Grzegorz Drozd, European Commission

• From severe storms to severe responses: Climate, insurance and geoengineering solutions

Facilitated by: Trish Lavery, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, Australian

Government

• The convergence of generative AI and synthetic biology

Facilitated by: Jean-Marc Rickli, Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)

• Grey rhino or grey power – the convergence of ageing and reduced births?

Facilitated by: Mark Robinson, Australian Taxation Office

4. Preparing for the UN Summit of the Future

14.30 – 15.30 CET | PLENARY

The UN Summit of the Future in September 2024 is pivotal for building global momentum behind long[1]term governance and foresight in policymaking.

• Presentation from the UN Futures Lab Network followed by interactive discussion

15.30 – 16.00 CET | BREAK

5. Community Exchange

Presentations of findings from recent foresight work, thematic mini-workshops, or opportunities to

share and seek feedback on current plans and priorities for the future.

Introduction to the session. Rafał Kierzenkowski, Senior Counsellor for Strategic Foresight, Head of

the Strategic Foresight Unit, OECD

5.1 Session 2, wave 1

16.00 – 16.45 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS

• Developing capacity in public sector foresight: Exploring nine essential competencies for

effective government futuring. Zan Chandler, Policy Horizons Canada

• New GOScience foresight project on global supply chains. Jack Snape, UK Government Office

for Science

• Territorial Outlook on tour. Ed Dammers, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

• Global Trends 2045: The precipice of transformation change, or more of the same? Steve

Scharre, U.S. ODNI/NIC Strategic Futures Group

• Learn how horizon scanning can help shape EU policy and discuss recent signals of change.

Maciej Krzysztofowicz and Maija Knutti, EU Policy Lab

• Establishing and embedding strategic foresight in central banking. Paul Woods, Central Bank

of Ireland

Virtual OECD Government Foresight Community Day

• Embedding strategic foresight with a multi-level perspective. Peter de Smedt, Government

of Flanders

• Fit for future: Trade unions’ experiences with strategic foresight. Rafael Peels, Bureau for

Workers’ Activities, International Labour Organisation

5.1 Session 2, wave 1

16.45 – 17.30 CET | BREAKOUT SESSIONS

• Governing Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could be the most complex and difficult

problem humanity has ever faced. How can we do it? Jerome Glenn, The Millennium Project

• Spotting annual patterns in data, whole-government horizon scanning, and preparing for

elections. James Ancell, Harry Hand, Rachel Joiner and Eduarda Giffoni, UK Cabinet Office

• Space futures with the US Space Force and European Parliament. Gabriele Rizzo and Zsolt

Pataki, United States Space Force and European Parliament

• The AI Generation: Exploring the potential impacts of AI on youth. Martin Berry, Policy

Horizons Canada

• Showcasing the Welsh approach to futures through the Well-being of Future Generations

Act, with examples of practical tools and case studies. Marie Brousseau-Navarro and

Petranka Malcheva, Office of the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales

• 2023 EU Strategic Foresight Report: how & what? Kathrine Jensen and Daniel Torrecilla

Fernandez, European Commission

• Out of the box participative foresight in defence. Capt. (R) Claudio Correa, visiting researcher

Universidade Lusófona and Jéssica Leite, Visiting researcher King's College London

• Transformations in the future of public employment: From white collar to digital collar.

Gustavo Edgardo Blutman, Public Administration Research Center - School of Economics -

Buenos Aires University

• Fostering a desired future for the Ecuador-Peru border integration zone: The role of

academia in shaping tomorrow’s landscape. Kevin Jimenez, Universidad Nacional de Loja